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The only Chase race Tony Stewart won last season was Talladega -- will history repeat itself?Chase drivers hold their own in 'wild-card' event
Twice in Chase history has non-Chaser won fall race
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Talladega Superspeedway has been called the "wild-card" in the Chase all postseason. Drivers, crew chiefs, owners and fans have had Nov. 1 circled on the calendar as the event where all cars are created equal. In fact, some think the Amp Energy 500 (Noon ET, ABC) is the best opportunity for a non-Chase driver to steal the spotlight from the championship contenders.
Brad Keselowski certainly did that this spring when he held his line and won his first ever Cup race after tapping Carl Edwards, sending the No. 99 flying into the catchfence. In last year's Chase race, Regan Smith crossed the finish line first for what would have been his first Cup victory only to see the win go to Tony Stewart after it was determined Smith went below the yellow line.
But the reality is, in five Chase races, only two non-Chase drivers have gone to Victory Lane. In 2005, Dale Jarrett took the lead on the final lap and held off Stewart for the victory. And in 2006, Brian Vickers won his first Cup race after some bumpin' and bangin' with Chase drivers Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr., who both went for a spin.
So while it's possible a non-Chase driver will finally break through, odds are one of the top 12 will collect the wreath (In honor of Talladega's 40th anniversary, the winner will be crowned with a wreath like Richard Brickhouse was in the inaugural event).
Inside the Data
Chase drivers at Talladega Superspeedway
| Driver | Races | Wins | Top-fives | Top-10s | Poles | Laps Led | Avg. Start | Avg. Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Busch | 17 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 96 | 23.3 | 12.1 |
| Tony Stewart | 21 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 268 | 17.4 | 13.8 |
| Mark Martin | 43 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 2 | 315 | 14.2 | 16.1 |
| Jeff Gordon | 33 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 1 | 805 | 12.3 | 16.4 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 15 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 192 | 10.9 | 17.7 |
| Ryan Newman | 15 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 50 | 14.8 | 18.5 |
| Juan Montoya | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 17.2 | 18.6 |
| Denny Hamlin | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 164 | 17.7 | 18.9 |
| Brian Vickers | 10 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 56 | 21.6 | 19.7 |
| Kasey Kahne | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 28.4 | 23.5 |
| Greg Biffle | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 18.1 | 23.8 |
| Carl Edwards | 10 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 16.2 | 24.5 |
DID YOU KNOW?
7Since the advent of the current scoring system in 1975, only seven times has the Cup points leader with four races to go not won the championship. In 1992, Alan Kulwicki made up 144 points; in 1996, Terry Labonte made up 111 points; in 1979, Richard Petty made up 53 points, as did Jimmie Johnson in 2007. In 2006, Johnson made up 41 points; in 1982, Darrell Waltrip made up 37 points; and in 1990 Dale Earnhardt overcame a 16-point deficit.
GORDON'S POLE WATCH
16Since his first full-time season in 1993, Jeff Gordon has won at least one pole in a season -- a streak that has lasted 16 years. Through 32 races in 2009, Gordon has yet to win a pole, putting the longest active streak in the Cup Series in jeopardy. Starting position isn't as important at Talladega as other tracks, although Gordon did win the '07 spring race pole -- his only one at the track. The past four races, his best starting position was 14th.
NECESSITOUS NUMBERS
4Four drivers entered in Sunday's race have an average finish inside the top 10 at Talladega -- but all only have one race under their belt: Brad Keselowski (1.0), Marcos Ambrose (4.0), Scott Speed (5.0) and Joey Logano (9.0).
4In four of the five Chase races at Talladega, the eventual Cup Series champion posted a top-10 finish. Jimmie Johnson, in 2006, was the only driver to finish outside the top 10 in the Talladega race to go on to win the title.
4Jeff Gordon has finished in the top five in the past four Cup races, the longest streak in the series. Gordon also has five consecutive top-10s and eight consecutive top-15s.
8Kurt Busch has been very consistent at Talladega recently with eight top-10s in the past 10 races. In that stretch, he has three top-fives and an average finish of 10.6.
17.7Jimmie Johnson's average finish at Talladega, the third-worst track on the schedule for Johnson.
17.8Average starting position of the winner at Talladega in the five Chase races. In the first three Chase races, the winner came from the top 10. But in the past two, Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart each started 34th.
18Of the 38 Cup winners at Talladega, 18 of them have won multiple races at the track. Dale Earnhardt leads with 10 wins followed by Jeff Gordon with six and Dale Earnhardt Jr. with five.
32.3Mark Martin's average finish in three restrictor-plate races this season. Martin finished 16th in the Daytona 500 but followed it up with a 43rd at Talladega after crashing six laps in and a 38th in the July race at Daytona.
542Casey Mears has scored 542 points in the past four Talladega races, tops among all drivers. In those four races, Mears finished sixth, seventh, 14th and 16th. Jimmie Johnson has the second-most points with 525 and David Ragan is third with 523.
Also
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Sprint Cup Series
Standings
| Pos. | +/- | Driver | Points | Behind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | -- | Jimmie Johnson | 6,098 | -- |
| 2. | -- | Mark Martin | 5,980 | -118 |
| 3. | -- | Jeff Gordon | 5,948 | -150 |
| 4. | -- | Tony Stewart | 5,906 | -192 |
| 5. | +1 | Juan Montoya | 5,898 | -200 |
| 6. | -1 | Kurt Busch | 5,858 | -240 |
| 7. | +1 | Ryan Newman | 5,786 | -312 |
| 8. | -1 | Greg Biffle | 5,748 | -350 |
| 9. | +2 | Denny Hamlin | 5,746 | -352 |
| 10. | -- | Carl Edwards | 5,685 | -413 |
| 11. | -2 | Kasey Kahne | 5,659 | -439 |
| 12. | -- | Brian Vickers | 5,568 | -530 |
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