Busch riding Chase bubble; McMurray chasing ride

1. Is Kyle Busch actually going to miss the Chase?

Raygan Swan: I don't think Kyle will actually miss the Chase, but this weekend he returns to Pocono, where neither his luck or performance is really any good. So I'd rather answer this question after Pocono. But if I must answer, Kyle will make the Chase because Kasey Kahne and David Reutimann won't hold up in the next six races. Bold, yes, but that is my thought.

Bill Kimm: No, no, no! Does he want to be in 14th with six races remaining? Of course not. But there is no way Kyle Busch will miss the Chase. Look for six strong finishes from the No. 18 car, and for one of the boys from Roush Fenway Racing to fall out.

David Caraviello: Yes, he's outside the top 12, but it's not time to panic yet. The kid is way too good to think he can't make up the 82 points currently separating him from 12th in the standings. But he also needs some other drivers to go backward, and if his struggles go on for a few more weeks ... well, things are going to get perilous.

Bill Kimm: Thanks for pointing out the obvious, David. More bad finishes means more peril. Busch is too good not to make up the ground. He will be in.

David Caraviello: Well, the Gibbs folks are going through something of a problem stretch right now, with Kyle's performances of late and Denny Hamlin's mechanical failure last week. This is the kind of stuff that knocked them out of the Chase last year. Maybe they're getting it out of the way early this season.

Raygan Swan: Yeah, the talent is there, Bill, but I don't know about Kyle's ability to thrive under pressure. We saw it last season. Kyle does well when everyone is chasing him, not when he is chasing everyone else.

Bill Kimm: Raygs, what happened last year wasn't his fault. His title hopes were gone after two weeks because of fluke mechanical issues.

Raygan Swan: Yes, some of it was not his fault, but the way he handled himself was his fault. Kyle is much like Tony Stewart when Stewart was in his 20s at Gibbs. Team president J.D. Gibbs said so. I think Kyle is still maturing, and if he doesn't make the Chase, so what? Dale Earnhardt Jr. has missed it and will miss it again. Stewart has, too.

David Caraviello: I would agree with Raygan here. Can you imagine Kyle, needing to make up like 40 points or so at Richmond to make the Chase? I don't know if he's ever faced pressure like that in his NASCAR career. How would he deal with it? He might not talk to anyone all week! But let's hope this new, improved "be a better person" Kyle helps him take some of the pressure off himself. Though I'll believe that when I see it, or hear it over the radio.

Bill Kimm: And here we go with his attitude again. The kid hates losing. I like that. Does he take it too far, sure, but us in the media have to quit complaining about him blowing us off -- we need to get some thicker skin.

David Caraviello: Well, Bill, when he bolts from the race track, he's not just blowing us off. He's also blowing off the sponsors who have paid umpteen millions to paste their logos on his car and firesuit and want an explanation just like everyone else. He's blowing off fans who will continue to cast him in the somewhat unfair role of the villain. I know this is a lot to comprehend, but stay with me.

Bill Kimm: Then he will have to answer to his sponsors. But he doesn't owe the fans or the media a sound bite.

Raygan Swan: I almost think Kyle missing the Chase, or barely making the top 12, might be the reality check he and the team needs. Because it's almost as if Kyle appeared to be invincible last season. I'm not a sports shrink, but drivers have to have a realistic perception of themselves.

David Caraviello: Five minutes before the cameras, Bill, takes care of all that in one fell swoop. And Raygan, I might agree with you on missing the Chase. I like Kyle the way he is -- he's fantastic for the sport -- but a small dose of humility might make him a little more palatable to more people in the grandstand. Hey, nobody wants the guy to go all Stuart Smalley. That attitude and arrogance are the best thing going in NASCAR right now. But clearly, he's still working to round off some of his rougher edges. He'll get there.

Raygan Swan: Yeah, because Kyle is a good person off the track. He's dating a nice girl [a Purdue grad], he loves his dogs, he's good to his friends and his family. It's just no one will ever know that, because he's already been typecast as a villain in the sport.

David Caraviello: Much like Bill Kimm in Track Smack!

• Busch gets chance to put new attitude to test
• Handicapping Busch's chances to make Chase (Continued)