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RICHMOND, Va. -- Sunday's Chevy Rock and Roll 400 will get under way -- Hanna willing -- with the Chase contenders in varying states of anxiety.
Not over the hurricane, but over having to spend an extra 24 hours thinking about all that will go on during the race. Insistent rain and the hurricane bearing down on the eastern seaboard forced NASCAR officials to postpone Saturday night's race to 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
All the clinch scenarios have been plotted, and Friday's qualifying was cancelled due to the weather, so all that is left is to see what happens when the checkered flag waves -- again, Hanna willing.
| Pos. | Driver | Make |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Kyle Busch | Toyota |
| 2. | Carl Edwards | Ford |
| 3. | Jimmie Johnson | Chevrolet |
| 4. | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | Chevrolet |
| 5. | Jeff Burton | Chevrolet |
| 6. | Greg Biffle | Ford |
| 7. | Kevin Harvick | Chevrolet |
| 8. | Tony Stewart | Toyota |
| 9. | Matt Kenseth | Ford |
| 10. | Jeff Gordon | Chevrolet |
With just one two-hour practice session before qualifying -- the race is no longer under impound rules as a result of the postponement -- practice became the first gauge on how things might go whenever the 400-lapper gets the green. When the rain started, it became the only gauge.
The field will line up based on owner points, which means there's not much mystery in where everyone will start.
The Chase Bubble boys will line up eighth through 14th. Interestingly, 13 of 104 races at Richmond have been won from those starting spots.
Jeff Gordon, who sits in ninth, 102 points ahead of 13th place David Ragan, was fastest in practice on Friday with a fast lap of 121.534 mph (22.216 seconds) -- followed closely by Ragan, a scant .001 seconds behind. Greg Biffle (sixth) and Denny Hamlin (14th) were within .141 seconds of Gordon, and .374 seconds was the margin between Gordon and 40th-place Matt Kenseth (22.590).
Heading into the final "regular-season" race, all that sixth-place Biffle and seventh-place Harvick need do is start. Tony Stewart is eighth and needs to finish 36th or better to clinch, while Kenseth needs to be 26th or better to get in. Gordon has 24th as his make-it mark, and Hamlin's is 21st.
Clint Bowyer, clinging to a 17-point advantage on Ragan, is in regardless of what the others do should he win the race or finish second or third while leading the most laps. Ragan has to win and lead the most laps, and Kasey Kahne has to beat both by 48 and 31 points, respectively.
There are many other scenarios by which each of the three drivers could make the Chase field, but it boils down to who finishes ahead of whom and by how many spots.
Kahne, whose road to get in is the longest, has won here before in 2005, but has the worst average finish among the Bubble brigade at 17.3. Kahne has five top-10 finishes here, including the last two events.
On the other hand, Bowyer won the spring race here -- with some help from Kyle Busch -- and has the best average finish at 8.8. In three of his five starts, Bowyer has brought his Chevy home in the top 10.
Ragan remains the wild card. He was third in this race last year as a rookie, and he's averaged a 13.3 finish in his three starts. He's never finished outside the top 20 in a Sprint Cup car here.
Gordon has two victories in his 31 starts at Richmond, but none since this race eight years ago. He has five poles, 12 top-five and 19 top-10 finishes to his credit, but his average finish is sixth-best among the Bubble boys at 15.3.
Hamlin, who came 20 laps from winning the race here in May, has a new car and an axe to grind. In five starts, Hamlin has two poles, a pair of top-five and three top-10 finishes at RIR, and his average finish is 10.0, second only to Bowyer.
Stewart, along with Dale Earnhardt Jr., is the leader in victories at RIR among the active drivers here this weekend with three. In 19 starts, Stewart has five top-five and 13 top-10 finishes here, and his average finish is a solid 10.9, third-best among the group.
Kenseth traditionally doesn't qualify well here, averaging 21.0 for his 17 starts, and he was 40th in practice. Kenseth has won here, with three top-five and nine top-10 finishes including his victory. His average finish is 15.647, eighth among the nine on the Bubble.
| POPULAR ALERTS | ||||
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| Pos. | Driver | Make | Speed | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Jeff Gordon | Chevrolet | 121.534 | 22.216 |
| 2. | David Ragan | Ford | 121.529 | 22.217 |
| 3. | Juan Montoya | Dodge | 121.419 | 22.237 |
| 4. | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | Chevrolet | 121.327 | 22.254 |
| 5. | Mark Martin | Chevrolet | 121.294 | 22.260 |
| 6. | Greg Biffle | Ford | 121.218 | 22.274 |
| 7. | Jamie McMurray | Ford | 121.207 | 22.276 |
| 8. | Jeff Burton | Chevrolet | 120.941 | 22.325 |
| 9. | Joey Logano | Toyota | 120.870 | 22.338 |
| 10. | Reed Sorenson | Dodge | 120.870 | 22.338 |
| Pos. | +/- | Driver | Points | From 12th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8. | -2 | Tony Stewart | 3110 | +121 |
| 9. | +1 | Matt Kenseth | 3081 | +92 |
| 10. | -1 | Jeff Gordon | 3074 | +85 |
| 11. | -- | Denny Hamlin | 3065 | +76 |
| 12. | -- | Clint Bowyer | 2989 | --- |
| 13. | -- | David Ragan | 2972 | -17 |
| 14. | -- | Kasey Kahne | 2941 | -48 |
| 15. | +1 | Brian Vickers | 2799 | -190 |